How Realistic is Target Zero?

Q: You say the goal of Target Zero is to eliminate all fatal crashes, but that’s not a very realistic goal, is it? Why set an unrealistic goal?

A: Allow me to make the goal even harder. The goal of Target Zero is to eliminate all fatal and serious injury crashes. How’s that for a big reach? Impossible? In the past when I’ve talked with people about Target Zero, I’ve described it as an aspirational goal; something we should always aim for, even if we never quite get there. And on one level that makes sense. If we instead set a goal of reducing traffic fatalities by half we’re sort of accepting that over 18,000 people will still die in crashes in the US. Yep, if you double that, you’ll be close to the 36,560 total traffic fatalities for 2018. Better to aspire to an impossible goal and achieve milestones along the way than to reach an achievable goal and think our work is done. Or so I thought.

Target Zero is aspirational, but I was wrong to describe it only as that. The people of Oslo, Norway are on their way to providing the proof that I’m wrong. Before we get to Oslo though, let’s take a look at Seattle, a city of comparable size. Seattle averages about 20 traffic fatalities a year (one of the safer cities in the US), according to the Seattle Department of Transportation. If Seattle were to compare themselves to Oslo in 1975, they’d feel pretty good about themselves. Back in 1975 Oslo had 41 traffic fatalities. But Oslo made a serious commitment to eliminating traffic fatalities, and in 2019 they nearly did it. Last year Oslo had only one traffic fatality, a single vehicle crash in which an adult male was killed when he struck a fence.

There were no pedestrian or cyclist fatalities in Oslo in 2019, and in the entire country of Norway (with a population somewhat less than Washington) no children under the age of 15 were killed in traffic crashes. In contrast, in the US traffic crashes kill more children under age 15 than any other injury. In Seattle (and many other US cities) pedestrian and cyclist fatalities are increasing. In 2018 Norway had 108 traffic fatalities; Washington had 541.

You might argue that we can’t compare Oslo and Seattle because they’re too different, but that’s kind of the point. In the mid 70s the US and Norway had similar traffic fatality rates. Over the last 20 or so years they’ve taken a different approach to transportation, and it has resulted in a significant reduction in deaths. The problem isn’t that Norway is so different from Washington or that Oslo is so different from Seattle; it’s that we haven’t made the investments in and changes to our transportation system that are necessary to get the outcomes we say we want.

There are a couple approaches to eliminating traffic deaths: reduce the number of mistakes, and reduce the consequences of mistakes. In Washington we’ve put a lot of effort into reducing the number of mistakes; we’re trying to changing driver behaviors around impaired driving, speeding, distraction and seatbelt use. We’ve had some success and seen some declines in these behaviors, but they’re still the behaviors that kill most road users. And on the enforcement end of things, we’re not using some proven tools to reduce crashes; most notably DUI checkpoints, lower limits on impaired driving (0.02% in Norway), and automated enforcement (speed cameras).

We’ve put less effort into reducing the consequences of mistakes, an area where Oslo has achieved much of its success. Norway still has too many men who drive too fast (apparently not just a problem with American males) but they’ve designed their roads to better separate drivers from their potential victims. It’s notable that in Oslo’s single traffic fatality of 2019 the only victim was the driver of the car.

Here in Washington we have work to do, but our approaches are moving in the right direction. More cities are reducing speed limits in areas where vehicles and vulnerable road users cross paths, and we’re seeing an increase in road designs that better separate cars from people and bikes. As we continue to implement approaches that have been proven to work in other communities, cities, and countries we’ll achieve real and significant reductions in fatal and serious injury crashes. Hopefully we’ll reach a point where Target Zero looks as achievable in Washington as it does in Norway.